If 2025 taught us anything, it’s the importance of separating market fundamentals from geopolitical noise. We present a structured calendar of the 10 most pivotal events for investors—from politics to artificial intelligence (AI) and natural resources—to help identify opportunities and key risks.

With a packed agenda in 2026 (see calendar), do not let headlines distract you from the bigger picture: remain diversified across geographies and asset classes, with gold, and select currencies like the yen offering interesting hedges. Although our base case firmly incorporates continued disinflation in 2026, US midterms stand out as a key date, with upside growth potential coming at the cost of additional inflation risk.

Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) are potentially overstated, but recent news flow reinforces our cautious view on the USD for now. Europe could surprise both ways on the political front in 2026, China’s “Two Sessions” present upside, underlining also how AI—not geopolitics—remains the market’s hot topic, with big tech earnings, not bubbles the central focus. With “unknown unknowns”—a phrase famously coined by Donald Rumsfeld to capture the risks we cannot foresee— always shaping market dynamics, robust diversification remains the most effective strategy to safeguard portfolios and seize unexpected opportunities in 2026. Wishing you a successful and prosperous 2026!
 

Read the full analysis on the CIO Perspectives